Analysis of steel price trend at the end of Octobe

Analysis of steel price trend at the end of autumn October: seeking stability in change

in the face of the upcoming autumn October this year, I don't know that there are clear regulations on the fire prevention performance and supervision and management of the use of external insulation materials in new, expansion and reconstruction projects. For businesses busy in the steel market, whether they feel the wind of autumn and the joy of autumn harvest. It is true that in early October this year, the steel price was still announcing its entry into the silver decade with a sharp rise. However, due to the lack of substantive demand and the lack of upward support, the steel price began to fall again. The steel market in October has evolved into a pattern of rising first and then declining, which makes businesses at the end of October more or less do not know how to choose points to lose

however, as the saying goes, the worst market pattern experienced means that it will usher in a gradually better pattern. Seeing that the economy began to stabilize in the third quarter, the PMI index began to rise, and businesses began to regain confidence. At present, it is less than a week before the end of October. What will happen to the steel market? China's steel spot believes that under the support of low inventory, the gradual release of rigid demand, and the restriction of high crude steel production, it is difficult for the steel market to change significantly, or mainly to seek stability

low steel inventory provides support for steel price: as of October 19, the national social inventory of steel was 12.67 million tons, down 497000 tons from October 12, down 3.8% month on month; The social inventory of rebar was 5.05 million tons, down 260000 tons from October 12, with a month on month decrease of 4.9%. Domestic steel mill inventory has rebounded. Although the social inventory of steel has rebounded significantly during the long holiday, the social inventory of steel has been rapidly consumed after the long holiday. Now the social inventory of steel is still near the low point, and the poor resources have supported the price

the release of rigid demand accelerates the recovery of railway infrastructure; It is reported that the number of new railway projects has increased from 9 at the beginning of the year to 12, the national railway infrastructure investment has increased from 406billion yuan planned at the beginning of the year to 516billion yuan, and the national railway fixed asset investment has also increased from 516billion yuan at the beginning of the year. It also has a low thermal expansion coefficient similar to glass fiber to 630billion yuan. The railway infrastructure is expanding, and 1.05 million tons of steel will be consumed in three years. The vice president of the steel industry said that at present, the downstream demand is mildly expanding

at the same time, the initial value of PMI in October rose to a new high in recent March, indicating that the manufacturing industry began to recover; From the demand side, HSBC PMI new orders and new export orders rose in October compared with the previous month, indicating that domestic and foreign demand has rebounded. Among them, PMI's new orders rose sharply by 2.4 percentage points to 49.7, the highest since November last year, and the rebound rate was higher than the output index. The signs of domestic demand warming have begun to appear, and the signal of downstream demand warming has strengthened

however, despite the expectation of macroeconomic improvement, the "plastic limit order" is not in vain, and the current uneven specifications of steel resources in the steel market support the steel price. But eventually the market will return to supply and demand. Overcapacity in the iron and steel industry is still serious. With the acceleration of capacity release of steel mills, the national average daily crude steel output in early October was 1.9162 million tons, an increase of 3.98% month on month. According to the existing data, the daily output of crude steel is likely to exceed 2million tons in late October, which will be unbearable even if the downstream demand of the steel market is mildly recovering

at the end of October, when the settlement price of the steel plant was issued, coupled with the approaching capital pressure at the end of the month, merchants were eager to withdraw funds, and merchants may ship at a low price, but merchants were optimistic about the demand of the steel market in the later stage. With the projects approved in the early stage will gradually enter the implementation stage, the commencement of railway and infrastructure projects will bring substantial improvement to the demand for steel. Therefore, the steel price trend at the end of October may adhere to the principle of stability and stabilize the meso market