Three challenges facing the hottest power industry

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The power industry is facing "three challenges"

this round of power system reform has gone through a decade

over the past decade, the development of power industry has made remarkable achievements, which has provided strong support for China's rapid economic growth. At the end of 2011, China's installed power generation capacity was 1.056 billion kw and the power generation capacity was 4.72 trillion kwh, which tripled in the past decade, both reaching or surpassing the United States; The length of 220 kV and above transmission lines is 480000 km, the transmission and transformation capacity is 2.2 billion KVA, and the power scale has ranked first in the world; The coal consumption for power supply was 330 g/kWh, with a loss of 6.31%, which decreased by 53 g/kWh and 1.21 percentage points respectively in the past ten years; Coal power unit capacity of 300000 kW and above accounts for 73%; The unit kilowatt cost of thermal power units decreased from about 4808 yuan in 2001 to 3708 yuan in 2008, a decrease of 23%; Advanced technologies such as ultra supercritical coal-fired power generation, air cooling, clean combustion, ultra-high voltage, DC transmission 2.2 weight measurement method and intelligent power have been popularized and applied; During the Eleventh Five Year Plan period, the total emission of sulfur dioxide decreased by 29%

since the reform of the power system, we have realized the separation of power plants and independent supervision, implemented policies such as benchmark electricity price, coal electricity linkage, new energy development, carried out pilot bidding, and tried out energy-saving power generation dispatching methods. The security, reliability, economy and resource allocation capability of the power system have been strengthened through the competition among enterprises and the play of professional advantages. The developing China has attracted the attention of the world

with the rapid development, the power industry is also facing many challenges

the growth of rigid demand and the challenge of resource and environmental constraints

China's economy is in the middle stage of industrialization and urbanization. Power demand is rigid, and the growth of resource consumption and emissions is also rigid; However, China's per capita resource endowment and environmental carrying capacity will restrict the development of China's power industry

resources are relatively scarce. China's proven coal reserves account for 11% of the world's reserves, crude oil accounts for 2.4% and natural gas only accounts for 1.2%. However, China's per capita coal, crude oil and natural gas resources are only 70%, 10% and 5% of the world's per capita compressive strength experiments that can also be used for other non-metallic materials. The remaining recoverable total amount accounts for about 10% of the world's remaining recoverable total amount, which is far lower than the world average level. Among them, coal accounts for the main component of primary energy, and the resource endowment determines that China's power industry must focus on the intensive development of thermal power in a certain period of time

is expected to bring huge vanadium demand and environmental constraints to the vanadium industry. One third of China's land is eroded by acid rain, and one third of urban air quality seriously exceeds the standard. Since the reform and opening up, through the rapid development of the power industry, China has made great achievements in replacing the extensive use of primary energy with clean electricity. The proportion of electricity in the final energy consumption has increased from 6% to 22%. The realization of overall energy conservation and emission reduction in China still needs to further promote electrification, which makes the power industry more and more important in energy conservation and emission reduction. In the recently issued 12th Five Year Plan, it is estimated that by 2015, China's per capita GDP will be close to US $7000, and the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP will decrease by 17%, which requires China to pay more attention to the clean development of traditional energy based on thermal power

the challenge of sustained economic growth and cyclical fluctuations in supply and demand

over the years, we have adhered to the primary mission of meeting the growing demand for power for economic development and the improvement of people's living standards, but the cyclical fluctuations of surplus and shortage in China's power industry have always existed

in the process of raising funds to run power and the separation of power plants in the reform of power system, China continues to experience the cycle from power shortage to rich supply and then to power shortage. In the new cycle, the continuous large-scale losses in the power generation industry, especially in the thermal power industry, have seriously affected the development capacity of thermal power, and the investment has shown a rapid shrinking trend. By 2011, the proportion of thermal power investment in the investment in the power industry has decreased for six consecutive years, accounting for 28.4%, which has an impact on the long-term electricity security, and does not meet the needs of China's sustainable social and economic development, Therefore, we should establish a power development mechanism combining government macro-control and market mechanism as soon as possible to avoid the further deterioration of a new round of power supply shortage

Since the reform of power system, China's power industry has been developing continuously and rapidly, and has stepped up to a new level. However, there is still a great difference between the power utilization efficiency calculated by the power consumption per unit of GDP and that of developed countries. According to the published data, in 2011, China's power consumption per unit GDP was 0.621 kwh/USD, 2.26 times that of the United States, and the power utilization efficiency was low. At the same time, the efficiency of some high parameter and large capacity units has not been brought into full play

in market construction: China has made considerable efforts and reform attempts in the organizational structure, management mode and institutional framework of the power industry. At the end of 2002, China's power industry evolved from a single vertical integration structure to a pattern of two power companies and many power generation companies, and an independent regulator, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, was established. At the same time, China has also carried out pilot projects of power market in two regions. In 2006, the State Council issued the opinions on the implementation of power system reform during the 11th Five Year Plan period, proposing eight major tasks for deepening the power system reform during the 11th Five Year Plan period. The second major task after consolidating the separation of power plants and gradually promoting the separation of main and auxiliary power plants is to improve the power generation dispatching mode and speed up the construction of power market. However, due to the imperfection of relevant supporting measures, the progress of market construction is slow

in terms of structural adjustment: in recent years, according to the requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction, power generation enterprises have gradually begun to develop new energy such as wind power and solar energy. Due to the state's subsidized electricity price and a small amount of wind power in the first few years, the power also has sufficient consumption capacity, so the development momentum of new energy in recent years is very good. By the end of 2011, the installed capacity of wind power, solar energy and nuclear power in China had reached 45.05 million KW, 2.14 million KW and 12.57 million KW respectively. However, with the continuous increase of the total amount of new energy, electricity price amortization takes up more and more space. In particular, the power consumption capacity is limited. There have been problems of power access and wind abandonment. In some areas, large-scale wind power separation has also occurred, which has a great impact on power stability, and the development of new energy has been restricted to a certain extent

in terms of resource allocation: China has a vast territory, with great differences in resource distribution and economic development level. There is a contrast between resource rich areas and energy demand between the East and the west, and between the north and the south. Energy transportation is indispensable. The experience of the past few years shows that the state led trans provincial and trans regional power transmission projects are basically stable. However, due to the lack of a reasonable market mechanism, there are more or less disputes between the sending and receiving parties in other projects reached through negotiation. While affecting the normal operation of power generation projects, it is more important to affect the energy balance and even economic stability of both parties, and the efficiency of resource regulation has not been fully released

fundamentally, the above challenges are determined by the structure and growth mode of China's national economy on the one hand, and the market construction mode and development mode of the power industry also affect the structure and growth mode of the national economy to a certain extent. Therefore, it is suggested to discuss the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in the power industry from the perspective of the power industry, promote the planning and coordination of power development, ensure the long-term balance of power generation and consumption, and put forward the road map of power market construction. The establishment of an electricity market model that keeps pace with the times is conducive to promoting the adjustment of China's macroeconomic structure

(excerpted from the 2011 key energy policy research project of the national energy administration, research on power generation optimization and power market construction, organized by China Power Investment Corporation. Compiled by Jia Kehua, the article has been deleted and the title has been changed.)

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